알츠하이머가 전염병처럼 빠르게 확산될 것

알츠하이머가 전염병처럼 빠르게 확산될 것

'The world is on the brink of an Alzheimer's epidemic':

By 2050, 106 MILLION people will be battling the debilitating condition, expert warns

Published: 22:21 GMT, 6 January 2016  

급속도로 진행되는 인구 고령화 추세에 맞춰 알츠하이머가

유행병처럼 빠르게 확산될 것 이라는 전망이 나왔다.

 미국 로스앤젤레스 캘리포니아대의 론 브룩마이어 교수는 2050년에는 알츠하이머 환자 수가

세계적으로 1억 명을 넘어설 것이라고 예측했다.

전 세계 알츠하이머 환자는 지난 2005년 2573만 명에서 2015년 3526만 명으로

1000만 명 가까이 증가했다.

증가 속도는 앞으로 더욱 빨라져 2030년에는 5655만 명에 이르고 2050년이 되면

지금의 약 3배인 1억600만 명에 이를 것으로 브룩마이어 교수는 추산했다.

대부분의 환자가 65세 이후에 알츠하이머 진단을 받는다는 점을 감안하면,

고령 인구의 급속한 증가가 알츠하이머 환자 증가의 직접적인 원인으로 작용하고 있다.

또 알츠하이머에 한 번 걸리면 10년 이상 투병하기 때문에 고령 인구가 늘어날수록

환자 수가 계속 누적될 수밖에 없다.

브룩마이어 교수는 "알츠하이머가 전염성 있는 유행병은 아니지만, 인구 고령화와 맞물려

환자 수가 폭발적으로 증가할 것이 분명하다"며 "이들을 돌보는 데 드는 비용과

가족들의 감정적인 부담까지 고려하면 엄청난 문제"라고 말했다.

그는 이어 "질병 시작 시기를 조금이라도 늦출 수 있다면 공공보건 측면에서는

큰 성과가 될 것"이라며 "증상이 나타나는 평균 연령을 1년 늦춘다면

2050년 알츠하이머 환자 수는 예상보다 900만 명 정도 줄어들 것"이라고 내다봤다.

More than 100 million people across the world will be battling Alzheimer's by 2050, experts have warned.

In the last 10 years, the number of adults living with the disease has jumped from almost 26 million to more than 36 million.

But, in the next 34 years, that number is set to soar - reaching 106 million.

The explosion in patients is down to an aging population - and the fact most sufferers are diagnosed after the age of 65, according to experts at the National Institutes of Health.

It will become a full-blown 'public health crisis', University of California Los Angeles experts warned.  

Alzheimer's disease will become a 'public health crisis' by 2050, with more than 106 million adults worldwide projected to be living with the disease. That's because the average diagnosis occurs after age 65 - and people are living longer than ever before,

scientists warn

The number of adults in the US aged 65 or older was 40 million, as of the 2010 census.

But, that figure is expected to nearly double to 71 million by 2030. And as of 2060, it will reach 98 million. 

Dr Ron Brookmeyer, a biostatistics professor at the UCLA School of Public Health, said: 'This is a long illness.

'once you're diagnosed, you might live with it for 10 or more years, and the intensity of care required will vary during that time.

'From a public health point of view, it's important to look at where people will be in different stages of the disease and the needs we will be facing as a society.' 

Dr Brookmeyer began investigating a potential Alzheimer's epidemic almost 20 years ago.

At that time, he wrote a paper projecting that the prevalence of Alzheimer's in the US in the middle of this century would be one in 45.

A 2007 study also projected that one in 85 people would have the disease by 2050.

Nearly half of those people will require a level of care - equivalent to that of a nursing home, he said. 

 This is a long illness. once you're diagnosed, you might live with it for 10 or more years, and the intensity of care required will vary during that time. From a public health point of view, it's important to look at where people will be in different stages of the disease and the needs we will be facing as a society

Dr Ron Brookmeyer, a professor at the UCLA School of Public Health

Dr Brookmeyer began developing statistical models to make forecast on epidemics in the late 1980s during the HIV/AIDs crisis.

After that, he turned his attention to the treat of Alzheimer's disease.

Dr Brookmeyer said: 'Obviously it's not a transmissible epidemic like the ones I had been looking at, but with the aging of the population, it was clear that the numbers were going to explode.'

The scientist and his colleagues conducted a systematic review of Alzheimer's studies.

The team found that the rate of being diagnosed with the disease doubles every five years in older populations.

The likelihood of a diagnoses at age 77 is approximately one per cent, for example.

Yet, by age 82, it is two per cent - and by age 87, it is four per cent.

And, the rate of increase is consistent across the world.

But, the scientists noted that there may be future advances in Alzheimer's prevention and treatment. 

Dr Brookmeyer said: 'What if we could delay the onset of the disease for a few years?

'In an aging population, even modest advances could be home runs in terms of their public health impact.'

The scientists found, for example, that delaying the average disease onset by one year could reduce the number of projected worldwide cases by nine million by 2050.

Dr Brookmeyer is currently collaborating with researchers at University of California Irvine on a study of people over the age of 90 - which is the fastest growing segment of the US population.

They are working to better understand the predictors of successful aging - and factors that may protect against dementia. 

Dr Brookmeyer said: 'Over the next 50 years in the US, the over-90 population is going to grow six-fold, so this is a very important group to understand when it comes to the issue of dementia.'